NDLI: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

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Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

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Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Marescot, Lucile Forrester, Tavis D. Casady, David S. Wittmer, Heiko U.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.
Starting Page	185
Ending Page	197
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14383896
Journal	Population Ecology
Volume Number	57
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1438390X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Japan
Publisher Date	2014-10-17
Publisher Place	Tokyo
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Deer Population dynamics Predator–prey interactions Puma Ungulates Vital rates Ecology Zoology Plant Sciences Evolutionary Biology Behavioral Sciences Forestry
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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