NDLI: Modeling the effect of fire on the demography of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae), an endangered plant endemic to Florida scrub

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Modeling the effect of fire on the demography of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae), an endangered plant endemic to Florida scrub

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Evans, Margaret E. K. Holsinger, Kent E. Menges, Eric S.
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	Managing populations, either for conservation, harvesting, or control, requires a mechanistic or semi-mechanistic understanding of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how time-since-fire affects demographic transitions in an endangered plant, Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae), which is specialized to gaps created by fire. We used a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate transition probabilities (i.e., the elements of population projection matrices) as a function of time-since-fire and random effects, from 13 years of data on marked individuals in five populations. Using a standard Bayesian criterion to compare models, we find that death becomes increasingly probable and progression increasingly improbable with time-since-fire. The magnitude of some of the time-since-fire effects is substantial: death is 3–5 times more likely for flowering plants >6 years versus 3–6 years post-fire, 3-step progression is almost 7 times less likely, and large flowering plants are more than 6 times more likely to stop flowering. These insights inspire new hypotheses about the underlying cause of decline with time-since-fire, and how it can be managed. Our approach can be used by others who wish to model the effect of an exogenous factor on demography, while rigorously accounting for uncertainty and variability.
Starting Page	53
Ending Page	62
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14383896
Journal	Population Ecology
Volume Number	50
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1438390X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2007-09-06
Publisher Place	Tokyo
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Hierarchical Bayesian analysis Florida scrub Model comparison Model uncertainty Population projection Time-since-fire Forestry Behavioural Sciences Evolutionary Biology Plant Sciences Zoology Ecology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

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