NDLI: Knowing the past to forecast the future: a case study on a relictual, endemic species of the SW Alps, Berardia subacaulis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Guerrina, Maria Conti, Elena Minuto, Luigi Casazza, Gabriele
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.
Starting Page	1035
Ending Page	1045
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363798
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	1436378X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-05-30
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Palaeoendemic plant species Ecological niche modelling Glaciations Global warming Past climate change Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Oceanography Geography Regional/Spatial Science Nature Conservation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change

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