NDLI: Determining trends and environmental drivers from long-term marine mammal and seabird data: examples from Southern Australia

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Chambers, Lynda E. Patterson, Toby Hobday, Alistair J. Aruld, John P. Y. Tuck, Geoffrey N. Wilcox, Chris Dann, Peter
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	Climate change is acknowledged as an emerging threat for top-order marine predators, yet obtaining evidence of impacts is often difficult. In south-eastern Australia, a marine global warming hotspot, evidence suggests that climate change will profoundly affect pinnipeds and seabirds. Long-term data series are available to assess some species’ responses to climate. Researchers have measured a variety of chronological and population variables, such as laying dates, chick or pup production, colony-specific abundance and breeding success. Here, we consider the challenges in accurately assessing trends in marine predator data, using long-term data series that were originally collected for other purposes, and how these may be driven by environmental change and variability. In the past, many studies of temporal changes and environmental drivers used linear analyses and we demonstrate the (theoretical) relationship between the magnitude of a trend, its variability, and the duration of a data series required to detect a linear trend. However, species may respond to environmental change in a nonlinear manner and, based on analysis of time-series from south-eastern Australia, it appears that the assumptions of a linear model are often violated, particularly for measures of population size. The commonly measured demographic variables exhibit different degrees of variation, which influences the ability to detect climate signals. Due to their generally lower year-to-year variability, we illustrate that monitoring of variables such as mass and breeding chronology should allow detection of temporal trends earlier in a monitoring programme than observations of breeding success and population size. Thus, establishing temporal changes with respect to climate change from a monitoring programme over a relatively short time period requires careful a priori choice of biological variables.
Starting Page	197
Ending Page	209
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363798
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume Number	15
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1436378X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-05-28
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Seabird Marine mammal Regression Climate Little Penguin South-eastern Australia Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Oceanography Geography (general) Regional/Spatial Science Nature Conservation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change

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