NDLI: Present and future environmental impacts on the coastal zone of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia), a deductive scenario analysis

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Vermaat, Jan E. Estradivari, Estra Becking, Leontine E.
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Using the drivers–pressures–state–impact–responses (DPSIR) analytical framework, local stakeholder respondents and experts were interviewed to construct and prioritize a causality network that links ecosystem state of the coastal waters of Berau (East Kalimantan, Indonesia) with societal drivers of change. Particularly on the perceived top priority drivers and pressures, consensus among respondents was considerable. The constructed network was found to be consistent with literature findings from elsewhere in SE Asia. This causality network was then confronted with a local articulation of the SRES scenarios (IPCCs Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1, A2, B1, B2), and four plausible trajectories of future change were deduced over a period of 20 years, until 2030. Our scenario articulations differed greatly in the projected immigration influx into the region, in local economic growth and in institutional strength of governance. Under business-as-usual conditions, it is foreseen that fisheries will continue to overexploit the resource, and inland and mangrove deforestation, as well as sediment and sewage loading of the coastal waters, will increase, leading to declines in coral and seagrass extent and depleted fisheries. Scenarios with continued immigration (~A1, A2) will probably aggravate this pattern, whereas those with reduced immigration (~B1, B2) would appear to lead to considerable improvements in the state of the coastal waters of Berau.
Starting Page	437
Ending Page	444
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363798
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume Number	12
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	1436378X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-10-18
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	DPSIR framing Land-coast impacts Deforestation Overfishing Transmigration Global change Ecosystem services Geology Geography (general) Regional/Spatial Science Climate Change Nature Conservation Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change

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