NDLI: Dynamics of landscape patterns in an inland river delta of Central Asia based on a cellular automata-Markov model

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Luo, Geping Amuti, Tureniguli Zhu, Lei Mambetov, Bulkajyr T. Maisupova, Bagila Zhang, Chi
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	The analysis of landscape pattern changes is of significant importance for understanding spatial ecological dynamics and maintaining sustainable development, especially in wetland ecosystems, which are experiencing indirect human disturbances in arid Central Asia. This study attempted to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of landscape patterns and to simulate their trends in the Ili River delta of Kazakhstan through quantitative analysis and a cellular automata (CA)-Markov model. This study also sought to examine the effectiveness of using the CA-Markov model for investigating the dynamics of the wetland landscape pattern. The total wetland area, including the river, lake, marsh, and floodplain areas, and the area of sandy land have remained steady, while that of desert grassland has decreased slightly, and shrublands have increased slightly from approximately 1978 to 2007. However, the wetland and shrubland areas exhibited a trend of increasing by 18.6 and 10.3 %, respectively, from 1990 to 2007, while the desert grassland and sandy land areas presented the opposite trend, decreasing by 30.3 and 24.3 %, respectively. The landscape patterns predicted for the year 2020 using probabilistic transfer matrixes for 1990–2007 (Scenario A) and 1990–1998 (Scenario B), respectively, indicated that the predicted landscape for 2020 tends to improve based on Scenario A, but tends to degrade based on Scenario B. However, the overall Kappa coefficient of 0.754 for the 2020 predicted landscapes based on Scenarios A and B indicates that the differences in the predicted landscapes are not distinct. This research indicates that the applied CA-Markov model is effective for the simulation and prediction of spatial patterns in natural or less disturbed landscapes and is valuable for developing land management strategies and reasonably exploiting the wetland resources of the Ili River delta.
Starting Page	277
Ending Page	289
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363798
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume Number	15
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	1436378X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-06-24
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Ili River delta Remote sensing Landscape pattern Cellular automata-Markov model Simulation Climate Change Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts Oceanography Geography (general) Regional/Spatial Science Nature Conservation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change

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