NDLI: Downscaling nonclimatic drivers for surface water vulnerabilities in the Elbe river basin

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Blazejczak, Jürgen Gornig, Martin Hartje, Volkmar
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Aggregated consideration of both climate and socio-economic change in a coarse spatial resolution is a central feature for scenario development in global change research. Downscaling of the supposed aggregated changes is a necessary prerequisite for the assessments of global change at the regional scale. The present paper describes the method and results of an approach to develop and to apply scenarios of socio-economic change at a sub-national level, which are consistent with global change scenarios. National and regional models of economic and demographic development are used to regionalise drivers of socio-economic change. Scenario results are subsequently applied in order to analyse the impacts of socio-economic and climatic changes on water management issues in the Elbe river basin. Starting from global IPCC-Emissions Scenarios and taking up their key points, we formulate two scenarios for the German and Czech parts of the Elbe catchment areas. We present a system of demographic and economic models, designed to consistently project socio-economic developments at a national and sub-national level and, thus, to quantitatively illustrate our scenarios. The results show that in a scenario that assumes continued globalisation and emphasis on economic growth, export orientation will result in a comparatively high share of manufacturing. Growth spreads from centres to peripheral regions. Still, at the national level, the increase in population and employment will be modest and create little additional pressure, but water stress will be considerably stronger on a regional basis, namely in metropolitan areas such as Prague, Berlin and Hamburg. In a scenario where economic goals are balanced with ecologic and social ones, growth is weaker and the weight of the service sector increases more rapidly, thus easing the driving forces for overall water demand and pollution. However, as in this scenario regional metropolitan centres develop at the cost of peripheral regions, regional development is more selective and the driving forces for potential water stress will diverge spatially.
Starting Page	69
Ending Page	80
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363798
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume Number	12
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	1436378X
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-06-09
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Scenario analysis Modelling socio-economic development Industry level structural change Regional structural change Oceanography Regional/Spatial Science Geography (general) Geology Climate Change Nature Conservation
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Global and Planetary Change

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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