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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Mahmud, Ahmed Saber Vargas, Juan F. |
| Copyright Year | 2010 |
| Abstract | What determines who wins a civil war? We propose a simple model in which the power of each armed group depends on the number of combatants it is able to recruit. This is in turn a function of the relative ‘distance’ between the group leadership and potential recruits. We emphasize the moral hazard problem of recruitment: fighting is costly and risky so combatants have the incentive to defect from their task. They can also desert altogether and join the enemy. This incentive is stronger the farther away the fighter is from the principal, since monitoring becomes increasingly costly. Bigger armies have more power but less monitoring capacity to prevent defection and desertion. This general framework allows a variety of interpretations of what type of proximity matters for building strong cohesive armies ranging from ethnic distance to geographic dispersion. Different assumptions about the distribution of potential fighters along the relevant dimension of conflict lead to different equilibria. We characterize these, discuss the implied outcome in terms of who wins the war, and illustrate with historical and contemporaneous case studies. |
| Starting Page | 51 |
| Ending Page | 74 |
| Page Count | 24 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 14356104 |
| Journal | Economics of Governance |
| Volume Number | 12 |
| Issue Number | 1 |
| e-ISSN | 14358131 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher Date | 2010-05-30 |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Economics of conflict Contract theory Unique equilibrium Multiple equilibria Political Science Public Finance & Economics Economics general |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Business and International Management Economics, Econometrics and Finance |
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