NDLI: A forecast model for deep penetration of renewables in the Southwest, South Central, and Southeast regions of the United States

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Khoie, Rahim Yee, Victoria E.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	We present a model for forecasting the deep penetration of renewables in the electricity sector of the Southwest, South Central, and Southeast regions of the United States through 2050. Our model produces various scenarios for how electricity generation from renewables in the southern states of the U.S. can be ramped up in the next four decades. The maximum renewable potential of each state is determined for solar photovoltaic, wind, biomass, and geothermal resources. The penetration of renewables in the electricity sector is then modeled using the triangular distribution function. The renewable target is set to be a percentage of the maximum renewable potential of each state in each region. Our model accounts for a 1 % annual increase in electricity demand in all southern states. We have produced various forecast scenarios in which the states in the three regions set their renewable target at 60, 80, and 100 % of their maximum renewable potential in wind, solar, biomass, and geothermal. Our results show that when the renewable is set at 60 % of the maximum renewable potential to be reached by 2050, the South Central region will be able to produce its entire electricity demand from its renewable resources by the year 2017, beyond which, further utilization of its vast renewable resources will result in significant surplus of electricity generation. At such target level, the Southwest region will be able to produce its entire demand by the year 2031, while the Southeast region will never be able to achieve the goal of 100 % renewable electricity. Our results also indicate that when the renewable target is set at 100 % of the maximum renewable potential, the year by which the regions are able to produce 100 % of their electricity demands from renewable resources will be 2016, and 2024, for South Central and Southwest regions, respectively. The Southeast region, however, will remain fossil fuel-dependent even at 100 % of its maximum renewable potential.
Starting Page	957
Ending Page	971
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	1618954X
Journal	Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy
Volume Number	17
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	16189558
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-09-21
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Forecast model Renewable electricity generation Renewable energy resources Renewable portfolio standard Triangular function U.S. renewable resources Sustainable Development Industrial Chemistry/Chemical Engineering Industrial and Production Engineering Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology Environmental Economics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Chemistry Environmental Engineering Economics and Econometrics Business, Management and Accounting Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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