NDLI: Illusory versus genuine control in agent-based games

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Sativer, J. B. Sornette, D.
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	In the Minority, Majority and Dollar Games (MG, MAJG, $G) agents compete for rewards, acting in accord with the previously best-performing of their strategies. Different aspects/kinds of real-world markets are modelled by these games. In the MG, agents compete for scarce resources; in the MAJG agents imitate the group to exploit a trend; in the $ G agents attempt to predict and benefit both from trends and changes in the direction of a market. It has been previously shown that in the MG for a reasonable number of preliminary time steps preceding equilibrium (Time Horizon MG, THMG), agents’ attempt to optimize their gains by active strategy selection is “illusory”: the hypothetical gains of their strategies is greater on average than agents’ actual average gains. Furthermore, if a small proportion of agents deliberately choose and act in accord with their seemingly worst performing strategy, these outperform all other agents on average, and even attain mean positive gain, otherwise rare for agents in the MG. This latter phenomenon raises the question as to how well the optimization procedure works in the THMAJG and TH $G. We demonstrate that the illusion of control is absent in THMAJG and TH$ G. This provides further clarification of the kinds of situations subject to genuine control, and those not, in set-ups a priori defined to emphasize the importance of optimization.
Starting Page	357
Ending Page	367
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14346028
Journal	The European Physical Journal B
Volume Number	67
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	14346036
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2009-02-10
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Superconductivity, Superfluidity, Quantum Fluids Solid State Physics and Spectroscopy Fluids Complexity Physics Condensed Matter
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Electronic, Optical and Magnetic Materials Condensed Matter Physics

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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