NDLI: Natural recharge estimation and uncertainty analysis of an adjudicated groundwater basin using a regional-scale flow and subsidence model (Antelope Valley, California, USA)

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Siade, Adam Nishikawa, Tracy Martin, Peter
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Groundwater has provided 50–90 % of the total water supply in Antelope Valley, California (USA). The associated groundwater-level declines have led the Los Angeles County Superior Court of California to recently rule that the Antelope Valley groundwater basin is in overdraft, i.e., annual pumpage exceeds annual recharge. Natural recharge consists primarily of mountain-front recharge and is an important component of the total groundwater budget in Antelope Valley. Therefore, natural recharge plays a major role in the Court’s decision. The exact quantity and distribution of natural recharge is uncertain, with total estimates from previous studies ranging from 37 to 200 gigaliters per year (GL/year). In order to better understand the uncertainty associated with natural recharge and to provide a tool for groundwater management, a numerical model of groundwater flow and land subsidence was developed. The transient model was calibrated using PEST with water-level and subsidence data; prior information was incorporated through the use of Tikhonov regularization. The calibrated estimate of natural recharge was 36 GL/year, which is appreciably less than the value used by the court (74 GL/year). The effect of parameter uncertainty on the estimation of natural recharge was addressed using the Null-Space Monte Carlo method. A Pareto trade-off method was also used to portray the reasonableness of larger natural recharge rates. The reasonableness of the 74 GL/year value and the effect of uncertain pumpage rates were also evaluated. The uncertainty analyses indicate that the total natural recharge likely ranges between 34.5 and 54.3 GL/year.Les eaux souterraines ont fourni 50–90 % de l’approvisionnement total en eau dans la vallée d’Antelope, en Californie (Etats Unis d’Amérique). Les baisses de niveau des eaux souterraines associées ont conduit la Cour supérieure de Californie du comté de Los Angeles a publié récemment une règle stipulant que le bassin des eaux souterraines de la vallée d’Antelope est dans une situation de surexploitation, à savoir que le pompage annuel excède la recharge annuelle. La recharge naturelle se compose principalement de la recharge sur la chaîne de montagnes et est une composante importante du bilan total des eaux souterraines e la vallée d’Antelope. Par conséquent, la recharge naturelle joue un rôle majeur dans la décision de la Cour. La quantité exacte ainsi que la distribution de la recharge naturelle sont incertaines, les estimations globales des études antérieures étant comprises entre 37 et 200 gigalitres par an (GL/an). Afin de mieux comprendre l’incertitude associée à la recharge naturelle et de fournir un outil pour la gestion des eaux souterraines, un modèle numérique d’écoulement souterrain et des affaissements de terrain a été développé. Le modèle transitoire a été calibré en utilisant PEST avec les données de niveaux d’eau et de subsidence; l’information préalable a été incorporée grâce à l’utilisation de la régularisation de Tikhonov. L’estimation calibrée de la recharge naturelle était de 36 GL/an, ce qui est nettement inférieur à la valeur utilisée par la Cour (74 GL/an). L’effet de l’incertitude des paramètres sur l’estimation de la recharge naturelle a été abordé en utilisant la méthode de Monte Carlo Null-Space. La méthode de compromis de Pareto a également été utilisée pour dépeindre le caractère raisonnable des plus grands taux de recharge naturelle. Le caractère raisonnable de la valeur de 74 GL/an et l’effet des débits incertains des pompages ont également été évalués. Les analyses d’incertitude indiquent que la recharge naturelle totale varie entre 34.5 et 54.3 GL/an.El agua subterránea ha proporcionado el 50–90 % del suministro total de agua en Antelope Valley, California (EE.UU.). Los descensos de nivel de las aguas subterráneas asociados han llevado recientemente a la Los Angeles County Superior Court of California a reglamentar recientemente que la cuenca de agua subterránea Antelope Valley está sobreexplotada, es decir, que bombeo anual excede recarga anual. La recarga natural se compone primariamente de la recarga en el frente montañoso y es una componente importante del balance total de las aguas subterráneas en Antelope Valley. Por lo tanto, la recarga natural juega un papel importante en la decisión de la Corte. La cantidad exacta y la distribución de la recarga natural es incierta, con estimaciones totales en estudios previos que van desde 37 hasta 200 gigalitros por año (GL/año). Con el fin de comprender mejor la incertidumbre asociada a la recarga natural y para proporcionar una herramienta para la gestión de las aguas subterráneas, se desarrolló un modelo numérico de flujo de agua subterránea y de subsidencia del terreno. El modelo transitorio se calibró usando el PEST con datos niveles de agua y de subsidencia; se incorpora información previa mediante el uso de la regularización Tikhonov. La estimación calibrada de la recarga natural fue de 36 GL/año, que es sensiblemente menor que el valor utilizado por la Corte (74 GL/año). El efecto de la incertidumbre de los parámetros en la estimación de la recarga natural fue abordada utilizando el método de Monte Carlo de espacio nulo. Un método de compensación de Pareto se utilizó también para discernir la razonabilidad de las tasas de mayores recarga natural. Se evaluó también la razonabilidad del valor 74 GL/año y el efecto de las tasas de bombeo inciertas. Los análisis de incertidumbre indican que la recarga total natural oscila muy probablemente entre 34.5 y 54.3 GL/año.在(美国)加利佛尼亚州羚羊山谷,总供水量的50–90%为地下水。相关联的地下水位下降致使加利佛尼亚州洛杉矶县高等法院最近裁定,羚羊山谷地下水盆地处于超采状态,也就是说,每年的开采量超过了补给量。天然补给主要由山前补给组成,是羚羊山谷中地下水预算总额中重要的组成部分。因此,天然补给在高等法院决定中发挥着主要作用。天然补给的准确数量和分布不确定,根据先前的研究估算为每年37到200 千兆升。为了更好地了解与天然补给相关的不确定性并为地下水管理提供工具,建立了地下水流和地面沉降数值模型。采用PEST用水位和沉降资料对瞬时模型进行校准;通过采用吉洪诺夫正则化合并先验信息。校准过的天然补给估算量为每年36千兆升,明显少于高等法院采用的值(74千兆升/每年)。参数不确定性对天然补给量估算的影响采用零空间蒙特卡洛法进行处理。还采用了帕累托的权衡方法描述较大天然补给量的合理性。还对每年74千兆升值的合理性及不确定抽水量的效果进行了评估。不确定性分析表明,总的天然补给量很可能在每年34.5到54.3千兆升之间。As águas subterrâneas forneceram 50–90 % do total de água de abastecimento no Vale do Antílope, na Califórnia (EUA). O declínio dos níveis das águas subterrâneas associado levou a Corte Superior de Los Angeles na Califórnia a decidir recentemente que a bacia de águas subterrâneas no Vale do Antílope está superexplorada, ou seja o bombeamento anual excede a recarga anual. A recarga natural consiste primariamente da recarga de frente de montanha e é um componente importante do balanço total das águas subterrâneas no Vale do Antílope. Desta forma, a recarga natural teve um maior peso na decisão da Corte. A quantidade exata e distribuição da recarga natural é incerta, com estimativas totais em estudos anteriores variando de 37 a 200 gigalitros por ano (GL/ano). Afim de melhor entender as incertezas associadas com a recarga natural e fornecer uma ferramenta para a gestão das águas subterrâneas, um modelo numérico de fluxo de águas subterrâneas e subsidência do terreno foi desenvolvido. O modelo transiente foi calibrado usando PEST com os dados de níveis d’água e subsidência; a informação anterior foi incorporada através do uso da regularização Tikhonov. A estimativa de recarga calibrada foi de 36 GL/ano, que é apreciavelmente menor que os valores usados pela Corte (74 GL/ano). O efeito da incerteza nos parâmetros de estimativa da recarga natural foi resolvido usando o método de Monte Carlo Espaço Nulo. Um método Pareto de permutação foi também usado para retratar a razoabilidade das altas taxas de recarga naturais. A razoabilidade do valor de 74 (GL/ano) e o efeito da incerteza das taxas de bombeamento foram também avaliadas. As análises das incertezas indicaram que a recarga natural total provavelmente varia entre 34.5 e 54.3 GL/ano.
Starting Page	1267
Ending Page	1291
Page Count	25
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14312174
Journal	Hydrogeology Journal
Volume Number	23
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	14350157
Language	Portuguese
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-07-24
Publisher Institution	International Association of Hydrogeologists
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Subsidence Groundwater flow Groundwater recharge/water budget Inverse modeling Optimization Hydrogeology Hydrology/Water Resources Geology Water Quality/Water Pollution Geophysics/Geodesy Waste Water Technology Water Pollution Control Water Management Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences Water Science and Technology

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