NDLI: Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kyselý, Jan Beravá, Romana
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	Observations as well as most climate model simulations are generally in accord with the hypothesis that the hydrologic cycle should intensify and become highly volatile with the greenhouse-gas-induced climate change, although uncertainties of these projections as well as the spatial and seasonal variability of the changes are much larger than for temperature extremes. In this study, we examine scenarios of changes in extreme precipitation events in 24 future climate runs of ten regional climate models, focusing on a specific area of the Czech Republic (central Europe) where complex orography and an interaction of other factors governing the occurrence of heavy precipitation events result in patterns that cannot be captured by global models. The peaks-over-threshold analysis with increasing threshold censoring is applied to estimate multi-year return levels of daily rainfall amounts. Uncertainties in scenarios of changes for the late 21st century related to the inter-model and within-ensemble variability and the use of the SRES-A2 and SRES-B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios are evaluated. The results show that heavy precipitation events are likely to increase in severity in winter and (with less agreement among models) also in summer. The inter-model and intra-model variability and related uncertainties in the pattern and magnitude of the change is large, but the scenarios tend to agree with precipitation trends recently observed in the area, which may strengthen their credibility. In most scenario runs, the projected change in extreme precipitation in summer is of the opposite sign than a change in mean seasonal totals, the latter pointing towards generally drier conditions in summer. A combination of enhanced heavy precipitation amounts and reduced water infiltration capabilities of a dry soil may severely increase peak river discharges and flood-related risks in this region.
Starting Page	361
Ending Page	374
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0177798X
Journal	Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume Number	95
Issue Number	3-4
e-ISSN	14344483
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Vienna
Publisher Date	2008-04-18
Publisher Place	Vienna
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution Climate Change Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Meteorology/Climatology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe

Climate change scenarios for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over central Belgium

Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Extreme precipitation in Europe: statistical threshold selection based on climatological criteria

Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: Present-day and future climate scenarios

Comparison of regional climate model and statistical downscaling simulations of different winter precipitation change scenarios over Romania

Climatological aspects of extreme precipitation in Europe, related to mid-latitude cyclonic systems

Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models

Similar Documents

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe

Climate change scenarios for precipitation and potential evapotranspiration over central Belgium

Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics

Climate change scenarios for precipitation extremes in Portugal

Extreme precipitation in Europe: statistical threshold selection based on climatological criteria

Extreme precipitation over the Maritime Alps and associated weather regimes simulated by a regional climate model: Present-day and future climate scenarios

Comparison of regional climate model and statistical downscaling simulations of different winter precipitation change scenarios over Romania

Climatological aspects of extreme precipitation in Europe, related to mid-latitude cyclonic systems

Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models