NDLI: Toward the development of prediction models for the primary Caribbean dry season

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Stephenson, T. S. Chen, A. A. Taylor, M. A.
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	Two statistical models are created for the Caribbean during its dry season. Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) confirms that there is a robust El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal in the region during the dry season and that the mode manifests itself as oppositely signed precipitation anomalies over the north and south Caribbean. The south-eastern Caribbean becomes dry in response to a warm event. The first statistical model consequently uses a rainfall index averaged over the south-eastern Caribbean as the predictand. A model which retains an ENSO proxy as one of two predictors shows reasonable skill with hindcast predictions for the region. A second model is created using a Jamaican rainfall index as predictand. Jamaica falls in the transition zone i.e. between the oppositely signed north-south precipitation anomalies characteristic of the ENSO dry season mode. In this case no ENSO related predictor is retained in the final model. Composite analysis of select atmospheric variables for anomalously high and low rainfall years (for the dry season) give an understanding of the dynamics of the Caribbean dry season during phases of the ENSO, particularly those which lead to the creation of the transition zone.
Starting Page	87
Ending Page	101
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0177798X
Journal	Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume Number	92
Issue Number	1-2
e-ISSN	14344483
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2007-06-27
Publisher Place	Vienna
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Meteorology/Climatology Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Climate Change Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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