NDLI: Effects of climate change on annual streamflow using climate elasticity in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Sun, Shanlei Chen, Haishan Ju, Weimin Song, Jie Zhang, Hao Sun, Jie Fang, Yujie
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Hydrological processes depend directly on climate conditions [e.g., precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PE)] based on the water balance. This paper examines streamflow datasets at four hydrological stations and meteorological observations at 79 weather stations to reveal the streamflow changes and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Meigang, Saitang, Gaosha, and Xiashan) within Poyang Lake Basin from 1961 to 2000. Most of the less than 90th percentile of daily streamflow in each watershed increases significantly at different rates. As an important indicator of the seasonal changes in the streamflow, CT (the timing of the mass center of the streamflow) in each watershed shows a negligible change. The annual streamflow in each watershed increases at different rates, with a statistically significant trend (at the 5 % level) of 9.87 and 7.72 mm year−1, respectively, in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds. Given the existence of interactions between precipitation and PE, the original climate elasticity of streamflow can not reflect the relationship of streamflow with precipitation and PE effectively. We modify this method and find the modified climate elasticity to be more accurate and reasonable using the correlation analysis. The analyses from the modified climate elasticity in the four watersheds show that a 10 % increase (decrease) in precipitation will increase (decrease) the annual streamflow by 14.1–16.3 %, while a 10 % increase (decrease) in PE will decrease (increase) the annual streamflow by −10.2 to −2.1 %. In addition, the modified climate elasticity is applied to estimate the contribution of annual precipitation and PE to the increasing annual streamflow in each watershed over the past 40 years. Our result suggests that the percentage attribution of the increasing precipitation is more than 59 % and the decreasing in PE is less than 41 %, indicating that the increasing precipitation is the major driving factor for the annual streamflow increase for each watershed.
Starting Page	169
Ending Page	183
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0177798X
Journal	Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume Number	112
Issue Number	1-2
e-ISSN	14344483
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Vienna
Publisher Date	2012-07-24
Publisher Place	Vienna
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Atmospheric Sciences Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Climate Change Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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