NDLI: Prediction of volumes and risk in hydrocarbon exploration: a quantification of geology

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Nijhuis, H. J.
Copyright Year	1997
Abstract	The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure, reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable, consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables. As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Starting Page	322
Ending Page	331
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00167835
Journal	International Journal of Earth Sciences
Volume Number	86
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	14321149
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	1997-08-28
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	Subscribed
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Earth and Planetary Sciences

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