NDLI: Forecasting highway casualties under the effect of railway development policy in Turkey using artificial neural networks

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Doğan, Erdem Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	This study presents forecast of highway casualties in Turkey using nonlinear multiple regression (NLMR) and artificial neural network (ANN) approaches. Also, the effect of railway development on highway safety using ANN models was evaluated. Two separate NLMR and ANN models for forecasting the number of accidents (A) and injuries (I) were developed using 27 years of historical data (1980–2006). The first 23 years data were used for training, while the remaining data were utilized for testing. The model parameters include gross national product per capita (GNP-C), numbers of vehicles per thousand people (V-TP), and percentage of highways, railways, and airways usages (TSUP-H, TSUP-R, and TSUP-A, respectively). In the ANN models development, the sigmoid and linear activation functions were employed with feed-forward back propagation algorithm. The performances of the developed NLMR and ANN models were evaluated by means of error measurements including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2). ANN models were used for future estimates because NLMR models produced unreasonably decreasing projections. The number of road accidents and as well as injuries was forecasted until 2020 via different possible scenarios based on (1) taking TSUPs at their current trends with no change in the national transport policy at present, and (2) shifting passenger traffic from highway to railway at given percentages but leaving airway traffic with its current trend. The model results indicate that shifting passenger traffic from the highway system to railway system resulted in a significant decrease on highway casualties in Turkey.
Starting Page	869
Ending Page	877
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09410643
Journal	Neural Computing and Applications
Volume Number	22
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	14333058
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-12-17
Publisher Place	London
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Highway accidents Artificial neural networks Nonlinear modeling Traffic safety Turkey Artificial Intelligence (incl. Robotics) Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Probability and Statistics in Computer Science Computational Science and Engineering Image Processing and Computer Vision Computational Biology/Bioinformatics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Artificial Intelligence Software

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