NDLI: Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

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Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Juszczak, Radosław Kuchar, Leszek Leśny, Jacek Olejnik, Janusz
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T low = 10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.
Starting Page	31
Ending Page	44
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00207128
Journal	International Journal of Biometeorology
Volume Number	57
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	14321254
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2012-02-29
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Degree days Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) Weather generator WGENK Environment Biophysics and Biological Physics Meteorology/Climatology Animal Physiology Plant Physiology Environmental Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Atmospheric Science

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Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

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