NDLI: Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen with the model system COSMO-ART

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zink, Katrin Vogel, Heike Vogel, Bernhard Magyar, Donát Kottmeier, Christoph
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic plant that is spreading throughout Europe. Ragweed pollen can be transported over large distances by the wind. Even low pollen concentrations of less than 10 pollen m−3 can lead to health problems in sensitive persons. Therefore, forecasting the airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen is becoming more and more important for public health. The question remains whether distant pollen sources need to be considered in reliable forecasts. We used the extended numerical weather prediction system COSMO-ART to simulate the release and transport of ragweed pollen in central Europe. A pollen episode (September 12–16, 2006) in north-eastern Germany was modeled in order to find out where the pollen originated. For this purpose, several different source regions were taken into account and their individual impact on the daily mean pollen concentration and the performance of the forecast were studied with the means of a 2 × 2 contingency table and skill scores. It was found that the majority of the pollen originated in local areas, but up to 20% of the total pollen load came from distant sources in Hungary. It is concluded that long-distance transport should not be neglected when predicting pollen concentrations.
Starting Page	669
Ending Page	680
Page Count	12
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00207128
Journal	International Journal of Biometeorology
Volume Number	56
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	14321254
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-07-09
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	COSMO-ART Pollen dispersal Numerical modeling Pollen forecast Ragweed Meteorology/Climatology Biophysics and Biological Physics Environmental Health Plant Physiology Animal Physiology Environment
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Atmospheric Science

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