NDLI: Change of plant phenophases explained by survival modeling

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Templ, Barbara Fleck, Stefan Templ, Matthias
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	It is known from many studies that plant species show a delay in the timing of flowering events with an increase in latitude and altitude, and an advance with an increase in temperature. Furthermore, in many locations and for many species, flowering dates have advanced over the long-term. New insights using survival modeling are given based on data collected (1970–2010) along a 3000-km long transect from northern to eastern central Europe. We could clearly observe that in the case of dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) the risk of flowering time, in other words the probability that flowering occurs, is higher for an earlier day of year in later decades. Our approach assume that temperature has greater influence than precipitation on the timing of flowering. Evaluation of the predictive power of tested models suggests that Cox models may be used in plant phenological research. The applied Cox model provides improved predictions of flowering dates compared to traditional regression methods and gives further insights into drivers of phenological events.
Starting Page	881
Ending Page	889
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00207128
Journal	International Journal of Biometeorology
Volume Number	61
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	14321254
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2016-11-16
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Timing of flowering Cox model with time dependent covariates Biogeographical regions of Europe Taraxacum officinale Environment Biological and Medical Physics, Biophysics Meteorology Animal Physiology Plant Physiology Environmental Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Atmospheric Science

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