NDLI: Models for forecasting the flowering of Cornicabra olive groves

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Rojo, Jesús Pérez Badia, Rosa
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	This study examined the impact of weather-related variables on flowering phenology in the Cornicabra olive tree and constructed models based on linear and Poisson regression to forecast the onset and length of the pre-flowering and flowering phenophases. Spain is the world’s leading olive oil producer, and the Cornicabra variety is the second largest Spanish variety in terms of surface area. However, there has been little phenological research into this variety. Phenological observations were made over a 5-year period (2009–2013) at four sampling sites in the province of Toledo (central Spain). Results showed that the onset of the pre-flowering phase is governed largely by temperature, which displayed a positive correlation with the temperature in the start of dormancy (November) and a negative correlation during the months prior to budburst (January, February and March). A similar relationship was recorded for the onset of flowering. Other weather-related variables, including solar radiation and rainfall, also influenced the succession of olive flowering phenophases. Linear models proved the most suitable for forecasting the onset and length of the pre-flowering period and the onset of flowering. The onset and length of pre-flowering can be predicted up to 1 or 2 months prior to budburst, whilst the onset of flowering can be forecast up to 3 months beforehand. By contrast, a nonlinear model using Poisson regression was best suited to predict the length of the flowering period.
Starting Page	1547
Ending Page	1556
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00207128
Journal	International Journal of Biometeorology
Volume Number	59
Issue Number	11
e-ISSN	14321254
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-02-06
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Phenology Olive tree Meteorological variables Generalized linear models Environment Biophysics and Biological Physics Meteorology Animal Physiology Plant Physiology Environmental Health
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis Atmospheric Science

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