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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Ciriello, Valentina Federico, Vittorio Riva, Monica Cadini, Francesco Sanctis, Jacopo Zio, Enrico Guadagnini, Alberto |
| Copyright Year | 2012 |
| Abstract | We perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of radionuclide concentration at a given control location in a heterogeneous aquifer, following a release from a near surface repository of radioactive waste. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity is modeled as a stationary stochastic process in space. We examine the uncertainty in the first two (ensemble) moments of the peak concentration, as a consequence of incomplete knowledge of (a) the parameters characterizing the variogram of hydraulic conductivity, (b) the partition coefficient associated with the migrating radionuclide, and (c) dispersivity parameters at the scale of interest. These quantities are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a numerical Monte Carlo framework. This entails solving groundwater flow and transport processes within an ensemble of hydraulic conductivity realizations generated upon sampling the space of the considered random variables. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures to provide an estimate of the role of uncertain parameters on the (ensemble) target moments. Calculation of the indices is performed by employing PCE as a surrogate model of the migration process to reduce the computational burden. We show that the proposed methodology (a) allows identifying the influence of uncertain parameters on key statistical moments of the peak concentration (b) enables extending the number of Monte Carlo iterations to attain convergence of the (ensemble) target moments, and (c) leads to considerable saving of computational time while keeping acceptable accuracy. |
| Starting Page | 945 |
| Ending Page | 954 |
| Page Count | 10 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 14363240 |
| Journal | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
| Volume Number | 27 |
| Issue Number | 4 |
| e-ISSN | 14363259 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher Date | 2012-08-03 |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Performance assessment Radionuclide migration Heterogeneous aquifers Global sensitivity analysis Sobol indices Polynomial chaos expansion Math. Application in Environmental Science Earth Sciences Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences Computational Intelligence Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Environmental Chemistry Environmental Engineering Water Science and Technology Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality |
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