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The impact of climate change on runoff in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin in the Tibetan Plateau

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Li, Fapeng Xu, Zongxue Liu, Wenfeng Zhang, Yongqiang
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the “water tower of Asia” and it plays a key role on both hydrology and climate for southern and eastern Asia. It is critical to explore the impact of climate change on runoff for better water resources management in the TP. However, few studies pay attention to the runoff response to climate change in large river systems on the TP, especially in data-sparse upstream area. To complement the current body of work, this study uses two rainfall-runoff models (SIMHYD and GR4J) to simulate the monthly and annual runoff in the upstream catchments of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR) under historical (1962–2002) and future (2046–2065 A1B scenario) climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (MIROC3.2_hires) by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). The two rainfall-runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the eight catchments in the YTR basin, with median monthly runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.86 for SIMHYD and 0.83 for GR4J. The mean annual future temperature in eight catchments show significant increase with the median of +3.8 °C. However, the mean annual future precipitation shows decrease with the median of −5.8 % except in Lhatse (+2.0 %). The two models show similar modeling results that the mean annual future runoff in most of catchments (seven in eight) shows decrease with the median of −13.9 % from SIMHYD and −15.2 % from GR4J. The results achieved in this study are not only helpful for local water resources management, but also for future water utilization planning in the lower reaches region of the Brahmaputra.
Starting Page	517
Ending Page	526
Page Count	10
File Format	PDF
ISSN	14363240
Journal	Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
Volume Number	28
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	14363259
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-09-27
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Impact Runoff Regional climate model Yarlung Tsangpo River Math. Application in Environmental Science Earth Sciences Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes Statistics for Engineering, Physics, Computer Science, Chemistry and Earth Sciences Computational Intelligence Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Environmental Chemistry Environmental Engineering Water Science and Technology Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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