NDLI: Developing probabilistic eruption forecasts for dormant volcanoes: a case study from Mt Taranaki, New Zealand

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Turner, Michael B. Cronin, Shane J. Bebbington, Mark S. Platz, Thomas
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	The majority of continental arc volcanoes go through decades or centuries of inactivity, thus, communities become inured to their threat. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify hazard from sporadically active volcanoes and to develop probabilistic eruption forecasts. We compiled an eruption-event record for the last c. 9,500 years at Mt Taranaki, New Zealand through detailed radiocarbon dating of recent deposits and a sediment core from a nearby lake. This is the highest-precision record ever collected from the volcano, but it still probably underestimates the frequency of eruptions, which will only be better approximated by adding data from more sediment core sites in different tephra-dispersal directions. A mixture of Weibull distributions provided the best fit to the inter-event period data for the 123 events. Depending on which date is accepted for the last event, the mixture-of-Weibulls model probability is at least 0.37–0.48 for a new eruption from Mt Taranaki in the next 50 years. A polymodal distribution of inter-event periods indicates that a range of nested processes control eruption recurrence at this type of arc volcano. These could possibly be related by further statistical analysis to intrinsic factors such as step-wise processes of magma rise, assembly and storage.
Starting Page	507
Ending Page	515
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02588900
Journal	Bulletin of Volcanology
Volume Number	70
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	14320819
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2007-07-25
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Eruption record Volcanic hazards Probabilistic eruption forecasting Weibull renewal model Holocene Mt Taranaki/Egmont New Zealand Sedimentology Mineralogy Geophysics/Geodesy Geology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology

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