NDLI: Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano, Central Mexico

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Cruz Reyna, Servando Yokoyama, Izumi Martínez Bringas, Alicia Ramos, Esteban
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.
Starting Page	753
Ending Page	767
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02588900
Journal	Bulletin of Volcanology
Volume Number	70
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	14320819
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2008-01-30
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Popocatépetl volcano Volcano-tectonic earthquakes Reawakening of volcanic activity Accelerating seismic energy release Eruption precursors Sedimentology Mineralogy Geophysics/Geodesy Geology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology

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