NDLI: Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Please wait, while we are loading the content...

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hincks, T. K. Aspinall, W. P. Baxter, P. J. Searl, A. Sparks, R. S. J. Woo, G.
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	Frequent ash fallout from long-lived eruptions (with active phases greater than 5 years) may lead to local populations experiencing unacceptably high cumulative exposures to respirable particulate matter. Ash from Montserrat has been shown to contain significant levels of cristobalite and other reactive agents that are associated with an increased risk of developing pneumoconiosis (including silicosis) and other long-term health problems. There are a number of difficulties associated with estimating risks in populations due to uncertain and wide ranging individual exposures, change in behaviour with time and the natural variation in individual response. Present estimates of risk in workers and other population groups are simplifications based on a limited number of exposure measurements taken on Montserrat (1996–1999), and exposure−response curves from epidemiological studies of coal workers exposed to siliceous dust. In this paper we present a method for calculating the long-term cumulative exposure to cristobalite from volcanic ash by Monte Carlo simulation. Code has been written to generate synthetic time series for volcanic activity, rainfall, ash deposition and erosion to give daily ash deposit values and cristobalite fraction at a range of locations. The daily mean personal exposure for PM10 and cristobalite is obtained by sampling from a probability distribution, with distribution parameters dependent on occupation, ground deposit depth and daily weather conditions. Output from multiple runs is processed to calculate the exceedance probability for cumulative exposure over a range of occupation types, locations and exposure periods. Results are interpreted in terms of current occupational standards, and epidemiological exposure−response functions for silicosis are applied to quantify the long-term health risk. Assuming continuing volcanic activity, median risk of silicosis (profusion 1/0 or higher) for an average adult after 20 years continuous exposure is estimated to be approximately 0.5% in northern Montserrat to 1.6% in Cork Hill. The occupational group with the highest exposure to ash are gardeners, with a corresponding 2% to 4% risk of silicosis. In situations where opportunities for in-depth exposure studies are limited, computer simulations provide a good indication of risk based on current expert knowledge. By running the code for a range of input scenarios, the cost-benefit of mitigation measures (such as a programme of active ash clearance) can be estimated. Results also may be used to identify situations where full exposure studies or fieldwork would be beneficial.
Starting Page	266
Ending Page	284
Page Count	19
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02588900
Journal	Bulletin of Volcanology
Volume Number	68
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	14320819
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2005-11-29
Publisher Place	Berlin/Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Monte Carlo Montserrat Respirable health Risk Silicosis Volcanic ash Cristobalite Sedimentology Mineralogy Geophysics/Geodesy Geology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Characterization of respirable volcanic ash from the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, with implications for human health hazards

Sakurajima volcano: a physico-chemical study of the health consequences of long-term exposure to volcanic ash

Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: evolution of ash hazard

The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data

The nature and formation of cristobalite at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat: implications for the petrology and stability of silicic lava domes

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Similar Documents

Characterization of respirable volcanic ash from the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, with implications for human health hazards

Sakurajima volcano: a physico-chemical study of the health consequences of long-term exposure to volcanic ash

Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: evolution of ash hazard

The respiratory health hazards of volcanic ash: a review for volcanic risk mitigation

Development of an automatic volcanic ash sampling apparatus for active volcanoes

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

Volcanic ash hazard in the Central Mediterranean assessed from geological data

The nature and formation of cristobalite at the Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat: implications for the petrology and stability of silicic lava domes

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation