NDLI: The impact of eastern equatorial Pacific convection on the diversity of boreal winter El Niño teleconnection patterns

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Johnson, Nathaniel C. Kosaka, Yu
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	It is widely recognized that no two El Niño episodes are the same; hence the predictable variations of the climate impacts associated with El Niño remain an open problem. Through an analysis of observational data and of large ensembles from six climate models forced by the observed time-varying sea surface temperatures (SSTs), this study raises the argument that the most fundamental predictable variations of boreal wintertime El Niño teleconnection patterns relate to the distinction between convective (EPC) and non-convective eastern Pacific (EPN) events. This distinction is a consequence of the nonlinear relationship between deep convection and eastern Pacific SSTs, and the transition to a convective eastern Pacific has a predictable relationship with local and tropical mean SSTs. Notable differences (EPC minus EPN) between the teleconnection patterns include positive precipitation differences over southern North America and northern Europe, positive temperature differences over northeast North America, and negative temperature differences over the Arctic. These differences are stronger and more statistically significant than the more common partitioning between eastern Pacific and central Pacific El Niño. Most of the seasonal mean composite anomalies associated with EPN El Niño are not statistically significant owing to the weak SST forcing and small sample sizes; however, the EPN teleconnection is more robust on subseasonal timescales following periods when the EPN pattern of tropical convection is active. These findings suggest that the differences between EPC and EPN climate impacts are physically robust and potentially useful for intraseasonal forecasts for lead times of up to a few weeks.
Starting Page	3737
Ending Page	3765
Page Count	29
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	47
Issue Number	12
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2016-02-27
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	El Niño Teleconnection patterns Pacific/North American pattern Convective threshold Eastern Pacific Subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction Arctic amplification Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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