NDLI: Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Mariotti, Annarita Pan, Yutong Zeng, Ning Alessandri, Andrea
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Long-term climate change and decadal variability in the Mediterranean region during 1860–2100 are investigated based on observational data and the newly available Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments. Observational records show that decadal variability and a general tendency for annual-mean conditions to be warmer and drier have characterized the Mediterranean during 1860–2005. Consistency with CMIP5 model simulations including greenhouse gases (GHG), as well as anthropogenic aerosols and natural forcings, suggest that forced changes have characterized aspects of Mediterranean climate during this period. Future GHG-forced change will take place in the midst of decadal variability, both internal and forced, as it has occurred in the past. However, future rates of forced warming and drying over the Mediterranean are projected to be higher than in the past century. The degree to which forced change and internal variability will matter depends on the climatic quantity being considered. For surface air temperature and Mediterranean Sea annual-mean evaporation and surface freshwater fluxes, variability and forced change have become comparable and the forced signal has already emerged from internal variability. For quantities with large internal variability and relatively small forced signal such as precipitation, forced change will emerge later on in the twenty-first century over selected regions and seasons. Regardless, the probability distribution of future precipitation anomalies is progressively shifting towards drier conditions. Overall, results highlight that both mean projected forced change and the variability that will accompany forced mean change should be considered in the development of future climate outlooks.
Starting Page	1437
Ending Page	1456
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	44
Issue Number	5-6
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-01-31
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Decadal climate variability Mediterranean region CMIP5 models Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 simulations

Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

North Pacific decadal variability in the CMIP5 last millennium simulations

Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability

Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5

Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability

SST and ENSO variability and change simulated in historical experiments of CMIP5 models

Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability

Similar Documents

The leading modes of decadal SST variability in the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 simulations

Decadal climate variability in the Mediterranean region: roles of large-scale forcings and regional processes

North Pacific decadal variability in the CMIP5 last millennium simulations

Projections of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation interannual variability

Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

Extratropical cyclones and the projected decline of winter Mediterranean precipitation in the CMIP5 models

Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5

Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability

SST and ENSO variability and change simulated in historical experiments of CMIP5 models

Long-term climate change in the Mediterranean region in the midst of decadal variability