NDLI: Optimal detection and attribution of climate change: sensitivity of results to climate model differences

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Hegerl, G. C. Stott, P. A. Allen, M. R. Mitchell, J. F. B. Tett, S. F. B. Cubasch, U.
Copyright Year	2000
Abstract	Fingerprint techniques for the detection of anthropogenic climate change aim to distinguish the climate response to anthropogenic forcing from responses to other external influences and from internal climate variability. All these responses and the characteristics of internal variability are typically estimated from climate model data. We evaluate the sensitivity of detection and attribution results to the use of response and variability estimates from two different coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (HadCM2, developed at the Hadley Centre, and ECHAM3/LSG from the MPI für Meteorologie and Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum). The models differ in their response to greenhouse gas and direct sulfate aerosol forcing and also in the structure of their internal variability. This leads to differences in the estimated amplitude and the significance level of anthropogenic signals in observed 50-year summer (June, July, August) surface temperature trends. While the detection of anthropogenic influence on climate is robust to intermodel differences, our ability to discriminate between the greenhouse gas and the sulfate aerosol signals is not. An analysis of the recent warming, and the warming that occurred in the first half of the twentieth century, suggests that simulations forced with combined changes in natural (solar and volcanic) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol) forcings agree best with the observations.
Starting Page	737
Ending Page	754
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	16
Issue Number	10-11
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2000-10-04
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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