NDLI: Calibrated multi-model ensemble summer temperature predictions over Italy

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Pavan, V. Doblas Reyes, F. J.
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	A statistical calibration scheme is applied to multi-model global seasonal ensemble reforecasts in order to predict the interannual variability of summer averaged surface maximum temperature over Italy. In some cases, this technique is shown to be able to improve the skill scores of the seasonal predictions during the last 35 years, with respect to the direct model output (DMO), using seasonal predictions initialised 1 month before the beginning of the season. It is shown that the presence of some skill in the DMO multi-model predictions is mostly due to the correct prediction of the observed secular trends in maximum temperature, and, partly, to the correct prediction of outliers, in particular, of the summer of 2003. At the same time, while the removal of trends produces a small reduction of skill in both the raw and calibrated predictions, the removal of outliers improves the performance of the calibration scheme. Once all trends and outliers are removed, the DMO predictions have no skill, while the calibrated predictions still present a detectable skill. The improvement introduced by the calibration are shown to be statistically significant by applying resampling techniques. It is shown that the reason of this partial success is linked to the fact that although the models present several shortcomings, some models can capture the existence of a weak large-scale signal, possibly linked with the presence of a summer teleconnection between the equatorial Pacific and Europe, with a spatial pattern substantially different from that associated with the temperature secular trend. The teleconnection is associated with a modulation of the quasi-stationary barotropic eddies in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics.
Starting Page	2115
Ending Page	2132
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	41
Issue Number	7-8
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-07-24
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Seasonal ensemble forecasts Statistical downscaling Model validation Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
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3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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