NDLI: Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Schneider von Deimling, Thomas Held, Hermann Gapolski, Andrey Rahmstorf, Stefan
Copyright Year	2006
Abstract	The concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere continues to rise, hence estimating the climate system’s sensitivity to changes in GHG concentration is of vital importance. Uncertainty in climate sensitivity is a main source of uncertainty in projections of future climate change. Here we present a new approach for constraining this key uncertainty by combining ensemble simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) with paleo-data. For this purpose we used a climate model of intermediate complexity to perform a large set of equilibrium runs for (1) pre-industrial boundary conditions, (2) doubled CO2 concentrations, and (3) a complete set of glacial forcings (including dust and vegetation changes). Using proxy-data from the LGM at low and high latitudes we constrain the set of realistic model versions and thus climate sensitivity. We show that irrespective of uncertainties in model parameters and feedback strengths, in our model a close link exists between the simulated warming due to a doubling of CO2, and the cooling obtained for the LGM. Our results agree with recent studies that annual mean data-constraints from present day climate prove to not rule out climate sensitivities above the widely assumed sensitivity range of 1.5–4.5°C (Houghton et al. 2001). Based on our inferred close relationship between past and future temperature evolution, our study suggests that paleo-climatic data can help to reduce uncertainty in future climate projections. Our inferred uncertainty range for climate sensitivity, constrained by paleo-data, is 1.2–4.3°C and thus almost identical to the IPCC estimate. When additionally accounting for potential structural uncertainties inferred from other models the upper limit increases by about 1°C.
Starting Page	149
Ending Page	163
Page Count	15
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	27
Issue Number	2-3
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2006-03-16
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Can ensembles of regional climate model simulations improve results from sensitivity studies?

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Sensitivity of last glacial maximum climate to sea ice conditions in the Nordic Seas

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

Sensitivity of MJO simulations to diabatic heating profiles

The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate

Similar Documents

Can ensembles of regional climate model simulations improve results from sensitivity studies?

Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

Sensitivity of last glacial maximum climate to sea ice conditions in the Nordic Seas

The last glacial cycle: transient simulations with an AOGCM

High-resolution climate simulation of the last glacial maximum

Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing

Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

Sensitivity of MJO simulations to diabatic heating profiles

The Southern Westerlies during the last glacial maximum in PMIP2 simulations

Climate sensitivity estimated from ensemble simulations of glacial climate