NDLI: Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Fischer, Erich M. Lawrence, David M. Sanderson, Benjamin M.
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	Uncertainties in the climate response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations are quantified in a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. The ensemble of 108 members is constructed by systematically perturbing five poorly constrained land surface parameters of global climate model individually and in all possible combinations. The land surface parameters induce small uncertainties at global scale, substantial uncertainties at regional and seasonal scale and very large uncertainties in the tails of the distribution, the climate extremes. Climate sensitivity varies across the ensemble mainly due to the perturbation of the snow albedo parameterization, which controls the snow albedo feedback strength. The uncertainty range in the global response is small relative to perturbed physics experiments focusing on atmospheric parameters. However, land surface parameters are revealed to control the response not only of the mean but also of the variability of temperature. Major uncertainties are identified in the response of climate extremes to a doubling of CO2. During winter the response both of temperature mean and daily variability relates to fractional snow cover. Cold extremes over high latitudes warm disproportionately in ensemble members with strong snow albedo feedback and large snow cover reduction. Reduced snow cover leads to more winter warming and stronger variability decrease. As a result uncertainties in mean and variability response line up, with some members showing weak and others very strong warming of the cold tail of the distribution, depending on the snow albedo parametrization. The uncertainty across the ensemble regionally exceeds the CMIP3 multi-model range. Regarding summer hot extremes, the uncertainties are larger than for mean summer warming but smaller than in multi-model experiments. The summer precipitation response to a doubling of CO2 is not robust over many regions. Land surface parameter perturbations and natural variability alter the sign of the response even over subtropical regions.
Starting Page	1381
Ending Page	1398
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	37
Issue Number	7-8
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2010-10-16
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate extremes Uncertainties Heat waves Land–atmosphere interactions Snow albedo feedback Parametrization Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment

Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model

The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

Combined influence of atmospheric physics and soil hydrology on the simulated meteorology at the SIRTA atmospheric observatory

Mid-21st century projections in temperature extremes in the southern Colorado Rocky Mountains from regional climate models

Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

Intercomparison and validation of snow albedo parameterization schemes in climate models

On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback

Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment

Similar Documents

Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment

Impact of soil moisture–atmosphere coupling on European climate extremes and trends in a regional climate model

The Alpine snow-albedo feedback in regional climate models

Combined influence of atmospheric physics and soil hydrology on the simulated meteorology at the SIRTA atmospheric observatory

Mid-21st century projections in temperature extremes in the southern Colorado Rocky Mountains from regional climate models

Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo

The influence of inter-annually varying albedo on regional climate and drought

Intercomparison and validation of snow albedo parameterization schemes in climate models

On the persistent spread in snow-albedo feedback

Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment