NDLI: Role of natural external forcing factors in modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and their relationship on inter-decadal timescale

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Cui, Xuedong Gao, Yongqi Sun, Jianqi Guo, Dong Li, Shuanglin Johannessen, Ola M.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	We use reconstructed data and multi-centennial integrations performed with the Bergen Climate Model Version 2 to investigate the impact of natural external forcing factors on the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the potential relationship between the ISM rainfall and the winter NAO on decadal to inter-decadal timescales. The model simulations include a 600-year control integration (CTL600) and a 600-year integration with time-varied natural external forcing factors from 1400 to 1999 (EXT600). Both reconstructed data and the simulation showed increased ISM rainfall 2–3 years after strong volcanic eruptions. Strong volcanic eruptions decrease the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST), which increases the strength of the southwesterly winds over the Arabian Sea. With negative externally-forced radiative anomaly, the lower stratospheric pole-to-equator winter temperature gradient is enhanced, leading to a positive winter NAO anomaly with a time lag of 1 year. There is no significant correlation between the winter NAO and ISM rainfall in CTL600. However, the ISM rainfall is significantly positively correlated with the winter NAO in EXT600, with the NAO leading by 2–4 years, which is consistent with the NAO–ISM rainfall relationship in the reconstructed data. We suggest that natural external forcing factors regulate the inter-decadal variability of both the winter NAO and the ISM rainfall and thus likely lead to an increased statistical but not causal relationship between them on the inter-decadal timescale over the past centuries.
Starting Page	2283
Ending Page	2295
Page Count	13
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	43
Issue Number	7-8
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-01-29
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Indian summer monsoon North Atlantic Oscillation External forcing factors Inter-decadal timescale Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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