NDLI: Variability in projected elevation dependent warming in boreal midlatitude winter in CMIP5 climate models and its potential drivers

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Rangwala, Imtiaz Sinsky, Eric Miller, James R.
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	The future rate of climate change in mountains has many potential human impacts, including those related to water resources, ecosystem services, and recreation. Analysis of the ensemble mean response of CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) shows amplified warming in high elevation regions during the cold season in boreal midlatitudes. We examine how the twenty-first century elevation-dependent response in the daily minimum surface air temperature [d(ΔTmin)/dz] varies among 27 different GCMs during winter for the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The focus is on regions within the northern hemisphere mid-latitude band between 27.5°N and 40°N, which includes both the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau/Himalayas. We find significant variability in d(ΔTmin)/dz among the individual models ranging from 0.16 °C/km (10th percentile) to 0.97 °C/km (90th percentile), although nearly all of the GCMs (24 out of 27) show a significant positive value for d(ΔTmin)/dz. To identify some of the important drivers associated with the variability in d(ΔTmin)/dz during winter, we evaluate the co-variance between d(ΔTmin)/dz and the differential response of elevation-based anomalies in different climate variables as well as the GCMs’ spatial resolution, their global climate sensitivity, and their elevation-dependent free air temperature response. We find that d(ΔTmin)/dz has the strongest correlation with elevation-dependent increases in surface water vapor, followed by elevation-dependent decreases in surface albedo, and a weak positive correlation with the GCMs’ free air temperature response.
Starting Page	2115
Ending Page	2122
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	46
Issue Number	7-8
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-06-10
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Elevation dependent warming Mountains Rocky Mountains Tibetan Plateau Water vapor Snow albedo Feedbacks Temperature EDW Winter CMIP5 GCM Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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