NDLI: Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Lim, Eun Pa Hendon, Harry H.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	In 2010 eastern Australia experienced its wettest spring on record, which has been largely attributed to a strong La Niña event in conjunction with an extraordinary positive excursion of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). La Niña impacts would be expected to have been predictable months in advance, but predictability of the occurrence of the strong SAM is less known. We explore the predictability of the strong SAM in austral spring 2010 and its contribution to the extreme wet conditions in eastern Australia, using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s dynamical seasonal forecast system (POAMA2). Seasonal forecasts from POAMA2 were skilful in predicting the wet conditions over eastern Australia at up to 2 month lead time as a result of a good prediction of the impacts of the ongoing La Niña and the development of a strong positive excursion of the SAM. Forecast sensitivity experiments on initial conditions demonstrate that (1) the strong La Niña was a necessary condition for promoting the positive phase of SAM (high SAM) and the anomalous wet conditions over eastern Australia during October to November 2010; but (2) internal atmospheric processes were important for producing the moderate strength of the high SAM in September 2010 and for amplifying the strength of the high SAM forced by La Niña in October to November 2010; and (3) the strong high SAM was an important factor for the extremity of the Australian rainfall in late spring 2010. Therefore, high quality atmosphere and ocean initial conditions were both essential for the successful prediction of the extreme climate during austral spring 2010.
Starting Page	2807
Ending Page	2824
Page Count	18
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	44
Issue Number	9-10
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2014-11-13
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	La Niña 2010 Southern Annular Mode 2010 Australian rainfall extreme 2010 Seasonal forecasts Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
6	Contents and Copyright Issues	Queries related to content curation and copyright issues	content@ndl.gov.in
7	National Digital Library of India Club (NDLI Club)	Queries related to NDLI Club formation, support, user awareness program, seminar/symposium, collaboration, social media, promotion, and outreach	clubsupport@ndl.gov.in
8	Digital Preservation Centre (DPC)	Assistance with digitizing and archiving copyright-free printed books	dpc@ndl.gov.in
9	IDR Setup or Support	Queries related to establishment and support of Institutional Digital Repository (IDR) and IDR workshops	idr@ndl.gov.in

Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall

Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA

Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia’s extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

Potential role of the February–March Southern Annular Mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a new perspective

Can the Southern annular mode influence the Korean summer monsoon rainfall?

The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

Spatial classification of La Niña events

Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Similar Documents

Causes and predictability of the record wet east Australian spring 2010

Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall

Simulation and prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and its influence on Australian intra-seasonal climate in POAMA

Dynamics of the perfect storms: La Niña and Australia’s extreme rainfall and floods of 1974 and 2011

Potential role of the February–March Southern Annular Mode on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a new perspective

Can the Southern annular mode influence the Korean summer monsoon rainfall?

The bi-decadal rainfall cycle, Southern Annular Mode and tropical cyclones over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa

Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

Spatial classification of La Niña events

Understanding and predicting the strong Southern Annular Mode and its impact on the record wet east Australian spring 2010