NDLI: Seasonal climate predictability with Tier-one and Tier-two prediction systems

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Kug, Jong Seong Kang, In Sik Choi, Da Hee
Copyright Year	2007
Abstract	In this study seasonal predictability of Tier-one and Tier-two predictions are evaluated and compared. Through the comparison of these two predictions, it is demonstrated that the air–sea coupled process is an important factor not only for climatological simulation but also for seasonal predictability. In particular, the air–sea coupling plays a crucial role over the warm pool region, as the atmosphere tends to lead the ocean in anomalous variability. In this region, the Tier-one prediction has better climatology compared to the Tier-two prediction despite the presence of a climatological SST bias. Furthermore, the Tier-one has a relatively higher seasonal predictive skill than that of the Tier-two although its SST prediction skill is relatively poor. It is suggested that the air–sea coupled process plays a role to reduce both the climatological and anomalous biases in the uncoupled AGCM by means of the negative feedback of the SST-heat flux-precipitation loop. Using the CliPAS and DEMETER seasonal prediction data, the robustness of these results are demonstrated in the multi-model frame works.
Starting Page	403
Ending Page	416
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	31
Issue Number	4
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2007-05-11
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Oceanography Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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