NDLI: Projections of daily mean temperature variability in the future: cross-validation tests with ENSEMBLES regional climate simulations

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Räisänen, Jouni Räty, Olle
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	Because of model biases, projections of future climate need to combine model simulations of recent and future climate with information on observed climate. Here, 10 methods for projecting the distribution of daily mean temperatures are compared, using six regional climate change simulations for Europe. Cross validation between the models is used to assess the potential performance of the methods in projecting future climate. Delta change and bias correction type methods show similar cross-validation performance, with methods based on the quantile mapping approach doing best in both groups due to their apparent ability to reduce the errors in the projected time mean temperature change. However, as no single method performs best under all circumstances, the optimal approach might be to use several well-behaving methods in parallel. When applying the various methods to real-world temperature projection for the late 21st century, the largest intermethod differences are found in the tails of the temperature distribution. Although the intermethod variation of the projections is generally smaller than their intermodel variation, it is not negligible. Therefore, it should be preferably included in uncertainty analysis of temperature projections, particularly in applications where the extremes of the distribution are important.
Starting Page	1553
Ending Page	1568
Page Count	16
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09307575
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume Number	41
Issue Number	5-6
e-ISSN	14320894
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2012-09-06
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Climate change Climate projection Temperature Daily variability Delta change Bias correction Cross validation ENSEMBLES Europe Geophysics/Geodesy Climatology Oceanography
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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