NDLI: Potential impact of future climate change on crop yield in northeastern China

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zhou, Mengzi Wang, Huijun
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	We evaluated the potential impact of future climate change on spring maize and single-crop rice in northeastern China (NEC) by employing climate and crop models. Based on historical data, diurnal temperature change exhibited a distinct negative relationship with maize yield, whereas minimum temperature correlated positively to rice yield. Corresponding to the evaluated climate change derived from coupled climate models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario (RCP4.5), the projected maize yield changes for three future periods [2010–39 (period 1), 2040–69 (period 2), and 2070–99 (period 3)] relative to the mean yield in the baseline period (1976–2005) were 2.92%, 3.11% and 2.63%, respectively. By contrast, the evaluated rice yields showed slightly larger increases of 7.19%, 12.39%, and 14.83%, respectively. The uncertainties in the crop response are discussed by considering the uncertainties obtained from both the climate and the crop models. The range of impact of the uncertainty became markedly wider when integrating these two sources of uncertainty. The probabilistic assessments of the evaluated change showed maize yield to be relatively stable from period 1 to period 3, while the rice yield showed an increasing trend over time. The results presented in this paper suggest a tendency of the yields of maize and rice in NEC to increase (but with great uncertainty) against the background of global warming, which may offer some valuable guidance to government policymakers.
Starting Page	889
Ending Page	897
Page Count	9
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	32
Issue Number	7
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	Science Press
Publisher Date	2015-04-29
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	northeastern China statistical crop models climate models projection uncertainty Atmospheric Sciences Meteorology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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