NDLI: Simulated change in the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon in the 21st century

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Fu, Yuanhai Lu, Riyu
Copyright Year	2010
Abstract	This study investigates the projected changes in interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon and changes of ENSO-monsoon relationships in the 21st century under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios A1B and A2, respectively, by analyzing the simulated results of twelve Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) coupled models. The dynamical monsoon index (DMI) was adopted to describe the interannual variability of South Asian summer monsoon, and the standard deviation (SD) was used to illustrate the intensity of interannual variability. It was found that most models could project enhanced interannual variability of monsoon in the 21st century. The multi-model ensemble (MME) results showed increases in the interannual variability of DMI: 14.3% and 20.0% under scenarios A1B and A2, respectively. The MME result also showed increases in the rainfall variability are of about 10.2% and 22.0% under scenarios A1B and A2. The intensification of interannual variability tended to occur over the regions that have larger variability currently; that is, “the strong get stronger”. Another finding was that ENSO-monsoon relationships are likely to be enhanced in the 21st century. The dynamical component of the monsoon will be more closely correlated to ENSO in the future under global warming, although the ENSO-summer rainfall relationship cannot be reasonably projected by current models. This suggests that the South Asian summer monsoon is more predictable in the future, at least dynamically.
Starting Page	992
Ending Page	1002
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	27
Issue Number	5
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	SP Science Press
Publisher Date	2010-08-17
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	climate change interannual variability South Asian summer monsoon ENSO-monsoon relationship Geophysics/Geodesy Meteorology/Climatology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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