NDLI: Application of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method to the predictability study of the Kuroshio large meander

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Wang, Qiang Mu, Mu Dijkstra, Henk A.
Copyright Year	2012
Abstract	A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations. The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations. We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method. Because of their relatively large uncertainties, three model parameters were considered: the interfacial friction coefficient, the wind-stress amplitude, and the lateral friction coefficient. We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently, and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm. Similarly, the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method. Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days. But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P. The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored. Hence, to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model, the initial conditions should first be improved, the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.
Starting Page	118
Ending Page	134
Page Count	17
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	29
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	SP Science Press
Publisher Date	2011-12-23
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation Kuroshio large meander predictability model parameters Meteorology/Climatology Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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