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Prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variations with the Grid-Point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Wu, Zhiwei Li, Jianping
Copyright Year	2008
Abstract	Seasonal prediction of Asian-Australian monsoon (A-AM) precipitation is one of the most important and challenging tasks in climate prediction. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL) on retrospective prediction of the A-AM interannual variation (IAV), and determine to what extent GAMIL can capture the two major observed modes of A-AM rainfall IAV for the period 1979–2003. The first mode is associated with the turnabout of warming (cooling) in the Niño 3.4 region, whereas the second mode leads the warming/cooling by about one year, signaling precursory conditions for ENSO.We show that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction of the seasonal precipitation anomalies is primarily able to capture major features of the two observed leading modes of the IAV, with the first mode better predicted than the second. It also depicts the relationship between the first mode and ENSO rather well. On the other hand, the GAMIL has deficiencies in capturing the relationship between the second mode and ENSO. We conclude: (1) successful reproduction of the El Niño-excited monsoon-ocean interaction and El Niño forcing may be critical for the seasonal prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV with the GAMIL; (2) more efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in the Niño 3.4 region but also in the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean; (3) the selection of a one-tier system may improve the ultimate prediction of the A-AM rainfall IAV. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL and associated seasonal prediction skill.
Starting Page	387
Ending Page	394
Page Count	8
File Format	PDF
ISSN	02561530
Journal	Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
Volume Number	25
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	18619533
Language	English
Publisher	SP Science Press
Publisher Date	2008-05-26
Publisher Place	Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variation ENSO atmospheric general circulation model GAMIL Geophysics/Geodesy Meteorology/Climatology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Atmospheric Science

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Prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variations with the Grid-Point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)

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