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| Content Provider | Springer Nature Link |
|---|---|
| Author | Booms, Travis L. Huettmann, Falk Schempf, Philip F. |
| Copyright Year | 2009 |
| Abstract | The gyrfalcon (Falco rusticolus) is an uncommon, little studied circumpolar Arctic bird that faces conservation concerns. We used 455 historical nest locations, 12 environmental abiotic predictor layers, Geographic Information System (ArcGIS), and TreeNet modeling software to create a spatially explicit model predicting gyrfalcon breeding distribution and population size across Alaska. The model predicted that 75% of the state had a relative gyrfalcon nest occurrence index value of <20% (where essentially no nests are expected to occur) and 7% of the state had a value of >60%. Areas of high predicted occurrence were in northern and western Alaska. The most important predictor variable was soil type, followed by sub-surface geology and vegetation type. Nine environmental factors were useful in predicting nest occurrence, indicating complex multivariate habitat relationships exist. We estimated the breeding gyrfalcon population in Alaska is 546 ± 180 pairs. The model was 67% accurate at predicting nest occurrence with an area under the curve score of 0.76 when assessed with independent data; this is a good result when considering its application to the entire state of Alaska. Prediction accuracy estimates were as high as 97% using 10-fold cross validation of the training data. The model helps guide science-based management efforts in times of increasing and global pressures for this species and Arctic landscapes. |
| Starting Page | 347 |
| Ending Page | 358 |
| Page Count | 12 |
| File Format | |
| ISSN | 07224060 |
| Journal | Polar Biology |
| Volume Number | 33 |
| Issue Number | 3 |
| e-ISSN | 14322056 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher Date | 2009-09-03 |
| Publisher Place | Berlin, Heidelberg |
| Access Restriction | One Nation One Subscription (ONOS) |
| Subject Keyword | Alaska Arctic Breeding distribution Conservation biology Falco rusticolus Gyrfalcon Predictive modeling Zoology Ecology Plant Sciences Microbiology Oceanography |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
| Subject | Agricultural and Biological Sciences |
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