NDLI: Modeling two strains of disease via aggregate-level infectivity curves

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Deardon, Rob Romanescu, Razvan
Copyright Year	2015
Abstract	Well formulated models of disease spread, and efficient methods to fit them to observed data, are powerful tools for aiding the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. Our project considers the problem of the simultaneous spread of two related strains of disease in a context where spatial location is the key driver of disease spread. We start our modeling work with the individual level models (ILMs) of disease transmission, and extend these models to accommodate the competing spread of the pathogens in a two-tier hierarchical population (whose levels we refer to as ‘farm’ and ‘animal’). The postulated interference mechanism between the two strains is a period of cross-immunity following infection. We also present a framework for speeding up the computationally intensive process of fitting the ILM to data, typically done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a Bayesian framework, by turning the inference into a two-stage process. First, we approximate the number of animals infected on a farm over time by infectivity curves. These curves are fit to data sampled from farms, using maximum likelihood estimation, then, conditional on the fitted curves, Bayesian MCMC inference proceeds for the remaining parameters. Finally, we use posterior predictive distributions of salient epidemic summary statistics, in order to assess the model fitted.
Ending Page	1224
Page Count	30
Starting Page	1195
File Format	PDF
ISSN	03036812
e-ISSN	14321416
Journal	Journal of Mathematical Biology
Issue Number	5
Volume Number	72
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2015-06-18
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Individual level models Multi-strain Non-linear approximation Mathematical and Computational Biology Model comparison General biostatistics Applications of Mathematics Applications to biology and medical sciences
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Agricultural and Biological Sciences Modeling and Simulation

Sl.	Authority	Responsibilities	Communication Details
1	Ministry of Education (GoI), Department of Higher Education	Sanctioning Authority	https://www.education.gov.in/ict-initiatives
2	Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	Host Institute of the Project: The host institute of the project is responsible for providing infrastructure support and hosting the project	https://www.iitkgp.ac.in
3	National Digital Library of India Office, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur	The administrative and infrastructural headquarters of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in
4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
5	Website/Portal (Helpdesk)	Queries regarding NDLI and its services	support@ndl.gov.in
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