NDLI: The time to extinction for a stochastic SIS-household-epidemic model

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Britton, Tom Neal, Peter
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	We analyse a Markovian SIS epidemic amongst a finite population partitioned into households. Since the population is finite, the epidemic will eventually go extinct, i.e., have no more infectives in the population. We study the effects of population size and within household transmission upon the time to extinction. This is done through two approximations. The first approximation is suitable for all levels of within household transmission and is based upon an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximation for the diseases fluctuations about an endemic level relying on a large population. The second approximation is suitable for high levels of within household transmission and approximates the number of infectious households by a simple homogeneously mixing SIS model with the households replaced by individuals. The analysis, supported by a simulation study, shows that the mean time to extinction is minimized by moderate levels of within household transmission.
Ending Page	779
Page Count	17
Starting Page	763
File Format	PDF
ISSN	03036812
e-ISSN	14321416
Journal	Journal of Mathematical Biology
Issue Number	6
Volume Number	61
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2009-12-29
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Households model Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process Gaussian processes SIS epidemics Contact process Mathematical Biology in General Applications of Mathematics Time to extinction Epidemiology
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Applied Mathematics Agricultural and Biological Sciences Modeling and Simulation

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