NDLI: A Risk-Based Predictive Tool to Prevent Accidental Introductions of Nonindigenous Marine Species

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Floerl, Oliver Inglis, Graeme J. Hayden, Barbara J.
Copyright Year	2005
Abstract	Preventing the introduction of nonindigenous species (NIS) is the most efficient way to avoid the costs and impacts of biological invasions. The transport of fouling species on ship hulls is an important vector for the introduction of marine NIS. We use quantitative risk screening techniques to develop a predictive tool of the abundance and variety of organisms being transported by ocean-going yachts. We developed and calibrated an ordinal rank scale of the abundance of fouling assemblages on the hulls of international yacht hulls arriving in New Zealand. Fouling ranks were allocated to 783 international yachts that arrived in New Zealand between 2002 and 2004. Classification tree analysis was used to identify relationships between the fouling ranks and predictor variables that described the maintenance and travel history of the yachts. The fouling ranks provided reliable indications of the actual abundance and variety of fouling assemblages on the yachts and identified most (60%) yachts that had fouling on their hulls. However, classification tree models explained comparatively little of the variation in the distribution of fouling ranks (22.1%), had high misclassification rates (∼43%), and low predictive power. In agreement with other studies, the best model selected the age of the toxic antifouling paint on yacht hulls as the principal risk factor for hull fouling. Our study shows that the transport probability of fouling organisms is the result of a complex suite of interacting factors and that large sample sizes will be needed for calibration of robust risk models.
Starting Page	765
Ending Page	778
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0364152X
Journal	Environmental Management
Volume Number	35
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	14321009
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2005-05-27
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Aquatic Dispersal Hull fouling Marinas Nonindigenous species Risk Shipping Yachts Ecology Forestry Management Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Environmental Management Nature Conservation Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Pollution Global and Planetary Change

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