NDLI: Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Gomben, Peter Lilieholm, Robert Gonzalez Guillen, Manuel
Copyright Year	2011
Abstract	During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an “historic” scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an “existing” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a “demographic futures” scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region’s changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.
Starting Page	305
Ending Page	324
Page Count	20
File Format	PDF
ISSN	0364152X
Journal	Environmental Management
Volume Number	49
Issue Number	2
e-ISSN	14321009
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2011-12-15
Publisher Place	New York
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Demographic futures Land use change Logistic regression Open space Sustainable development Urban growth models Nature Conservation Waste Water Technology / Water Pollution Control / Water Management / Aquatic Pollution Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution Ecology Forestry Management Environmental Management
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Ecology Pollution Global and Planetary Change

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