NDLI: Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Chen, Yi Chi Zivot, Eric
Copyright Year	2009
Abstract	Using Bayesian methods, we re-examine the empirical evidence from Ben-David, Lumsdaine, and Papell (Empir Econ 28:303–319, 2003) regarding structural breaks in the long-run growth path of real output series for a number of OECD countries. Our Bayesian framework allows the number and pattern of structural changes in trend and variance to be endogenously determined. We find little evidence of postwar growth slowdowns across countries, and smaller output volatility for most of the developed countries after the end of World War II. Our empirical findings are consistent with neoclassical growth models, which predict increasing growth over the long run. The majority of the countries we analyze have grown faster in the postwar era as opposed to the period before the first break.
Starting Page	897
Ending Page	921
Page Count	25
File Format	PDF
ISSN	03777332
Journal	Empirical Economics
Volume Number	39
Issue Number	3
e-ISSN	14358921
Language	English
Publisher	Springer-Verlag
Publisher Date	2009-12-18
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Trend breaks Growth Gibbs sampler Multiple structural breaks Statistics for Business/Economics/Mathematical Finance/Insurance Economic Theory Economics general Econometrics
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Statistics and Probability Social Sciences Economics and Econometrics

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Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models