NDLI: The fertility transition around the world

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Strulik, Holger Vollmer, Sebastian
Copyright Year	2013
Abstract	In this paper, we study the evolution of the distribution of fertility rates across the world from 1950 to 2005 using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world’s countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low-fertility regime. Whereas the significance of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exists over the whole observation period. In 1950, about two thirds of the world’s countries belonged to the high-fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005, this picture has reversed. Within both the low- and the high-fertility regime, the average fertility rate declined, with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved closer together. For the low-fertility regime, we find both β- and σ -convergence but we cannot establish any convergence pattern for the high-fertility regime. Our results support the idea of conditional convergence where the condition is the successful initiation of the fertility transition. The results are less supportive of the existence of a unique high-fertility equilibrium.
Starting Page	31
Ending Page	44
Page Count	14
File Format	PDF
ISSN	09331433
Journal	Journal of Population Economics
Volume Number	28
Issue Number	1
e-ISSN	14321475
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Publisher Date	2013-11-22
Publisher Place	Berlin, Heidelberg
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Fertility Convergence Twin peaks Population Economics Labor Economics Demography Social Policy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Demography Economics and Econometrics

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