NDLI: An Early Assessment of Medium Range Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts from the Latest High-Resolution NCEP-GFS (T1534) Model over South Asia

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Prakash, Satya Momin, Imranali M. Mitra, Ashis K. Bhattacharjee, Partha S. Yang, Fanglin Tallapragada, Vijay
Copyright Year	2016
Abstract	Reliable prediction of the South Asian monsoon rainfall and its variability is crucial for various hydrological applications and early warning systems. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) is one of the popular global deterministic numerical weather prediction models, which is recently upgraded from T574 to T1534. In this paper, medium range monsoon precipitation forecasts from both the T1534 and T574 models are critically evaluated over the South Asia for the peak monsoon months (July and August) of 2015. Although both the versions of GFS model show similar large-scale monsoon rainfall patterns, the dry bias over the northwest India and equatorial Indian Ocean is noticeably improved in day-1 through day-5 forecasts in the new high-resolution T1534 model. The error decomposition analysis shows similar error characteristics in the monsoon rainfall prediction from both the versions of GFS model, in general. However, forecast improvement factor shows 10–30 % improvement in precipitation forecast from the latest T1534 model over most parts of the South Asia. These preliminary analyses suggest that a suitable bias-correction to the GFS model precipitation forecasts will be useful for any specific application.
Starting Page	2215
Ending Page	2225
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00334553
Journal	Pure and applied geophysics
Volume Number	173
Issue Number	6
e-ISSN	14209136
Language	English
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Publisher Date	2016-01-30
Publisher Place	Cham
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Numerical weather prediction South Asian monsoon rainfall medium range weather forecast error decomposition forecast improvement factor Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics

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