NDLI: Large Earthquake Hazard of the San Jacinto Fault Zone, CA, from Long Record of Simulated Seismicity Assimilating the Available Instrumental and Paleoseismic Data

Content Provider	Springer Nature Link
Author	Zöller, G. Ben Zion, Y.
Copyright Year	2014
Abstract	We investigate spatio-temporal properties of earthquake patterns in the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), California, between Cajon Pass and the Superstition Hill Fault, using a long record of simulated seismicity constrained by available seismological and geological data. The model provides an effective realization of a large segmented strike-slip fault zone in a 3D elastic half-space, with heterogeneous distribution of static friction chosen to represent several clear step-overs at the surface. The simulated synthetic catalog reproduces well the basic statistical features of the instrumental seismicity recorded at the SJFZ area since 1981. The model also produces events larger than those included in the short instrumental record, consistent with paleo-earthquakes documented at sites along the SJFZ for the last 1,400 years. The general agreement between the synthetic and observed data allows us to address with the long-simulated seismicity questions related to large earthquakes and expected seismic hazard. The interaction between m ≥ 7 events on different sections of the SJFZ is found to be close to random. The hazard associated with m ≥ 7 events on the SJFZ increases significantly if the long record of simulated seismicity is taken into account. The model simulations indicate that the recent increased number of observed intermediate SJFZ earthquakes is a robust statistical feature heralding the occurrence of m ≥ 7 earthquakes. The hypocenters of the m ≥ 5 events in the simulation results move progressively towards the hypocenter of the upcoming m ≥ 7 earthquake.
Starting Page	2955
Ending Page	2965
Page Count	11
File Format	PDF
ISSN	00334553
Journal	Pure and applied geophysics
Volume Number	171
Issue Number	11
e-ISSN	14209136
Language	English
Publisher	Springer Basel
Publisher Date	2014-02-13
Publisher Place	Basel
Access Restriction	One Nation One Subscription (ONOS)
Subject Keyword	Earthquake dynamics Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction Statistical seismology Seismicity and tectonics Geophysics/Geodesy
Content Type	Text
Resource Type	Article
Subject	Geochemistry and Petrology Geophysics

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4	Project PI / Joint PI	Principal Investigator and Joint Principal Investigators of the project	Dr. B. Sutradhar bsutra@ndl.gov.in Prof. Saswat Chakrabarti will be added soon
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