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Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand
| Content Provider | Semantic Scholar |
|---|---|
| Author | Janssen, John |
| Copyright Year | 2002 |
| Abstract | The fiscal gap calculates the change in fiscal policy settings needed to achieve a particular debt target at some point in the future. This working paper calculates fiscal gaps for New Zealand under a range of scenarios, including alternative spending growth, debt targets and interest rates. A positive (negative) fiscal gap indicates that a permanent increase (decrease) in the primary surplus is required to achieve a selected debt target in a particular terminal year. The scenarios suggest that under a range of alternative assumptions the fiscal gap out to 2051 is positive. These results are in accord with previous long-term fiscal projections, which, unlike the fiscal gap, have not been explicit about the nature of long-term fiscal imbalances. The analysis provides a platform for the further examination of potential long-term fiscal imbalances under a wider range of assumptions (e.g., around demographics, labour force participation, health spending) as well as alternative modelling techniques that allow for uncertainty. |
| File Format | PDF HTM / HTML |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan010125.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp02-04.pdf |
| Alternate Webpage(s) | http://www.treasury.govt.nz/workingpapers/2002/twp02-04.pdf |
| Language | English |
| Access Restriction | Open |
| Content Type | Text |
| Resource Type | Article |
